Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeones del '36, Sullana
The Footlab model makes Atletico Grau the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Alianza Atletico. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Atletico Grau (1,621) and Alianza Atletico (1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Grau have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Alianza Atletico have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sport Boys(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Atletico Grau win(s), 5 draw(s), 1 Alianza Atletico win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Alianza Atletico 2-2 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Atletico Grau 1-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Alianza Atletico 2-1 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Alianza Atletico 0-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Atletico Grau 1-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Atletico Grau 1-1 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Alianza Atletico vs Atletico Grau on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Grau score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza Atletico score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Grau | 1.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Alianza Atletico | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Grau sit 16th in Primera División (16 points from 17 matches) and Alianza Atletico sit 8th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Atletico Grau | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 31 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 26 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Grau the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Alianza Atletico.
- Where and when is Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico played?
- Atletico Grau vs Alianza Atletico is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeones del '36, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026UTC CajamarcavsJuan Pablo II College
- Sep 12, 2026Sport BoysvsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Sep 12, 2026Alianza LimavsUniversitario
- Sep 12, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsSport Huancayo
- Sep 12, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsFC Cajamarca
- Sep 12, 2026CuscovsFBC Melgar
- Sep 12, 2026ADTvsCienciano
- Sep 12, 2026UCV MoqueguavsSporting Cristal