Cusco vs FBC Melgar: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
The Footlab model makes Cusco the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for FBC Melgar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Cusco (1,705) and FBC Melgar (1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cusco have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; FBC Melgar have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso(away) | 1-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Universitario(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cusco win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 FBC Melgar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | FBC Melgar 1-3 Cusco | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2025 | FBC Melgar 0-2 Cusco | Primera División |
| Feb 14, 2025 | Cusco 0-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Cusco 0-3 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Jan 27, 2024 | FBC Melgar 2-3 Cusco | Primera División |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Cusco 1-1 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
How many goals should we expect?
Cusco score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cusco | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cusco sit 6th in Primera División (27 points from 17 matches) and FBC Melgar sit 5th (28 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 26 | 38 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 6 | Cusco | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Cusco | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 35 | 36 |
| 9 | Cusco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| 9 | Cusco | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cusco vs FBC Melgar?
- The Footlab model makes Cusco the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for FBC Melgar.
- Where and when is Cusco vs FBC Melgar played?
- Cusco vs FBC Melgar is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026UTC CajamarcavsJuan Pablo II College
- Sep 12, 2026Sport BoysvsDeportivo Garcilaso
- Sep 12, 2026Alianza LimavsUniversitario
- Sep 12, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsSport Huancayo
- Sep 12, 2026Atletico GrauvsAlianza Atletico
- Sep 12, 2026Club Deportivo Los ChankasvsFC Cajamarca
- Sep 12, 2026ADTvsCienciano
- Sep 12, 2026UCV MoqueguavsSporting Cristal