Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 9Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao, Callao
The Footlab model makes Sport Boys the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Deportivo Garcilaso. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Sport Boys (1,636) and Deportivo Garcilaso (1,711).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sport Boys have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Deportivo Garcilaso have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 5-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | ADT(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sport Boys win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Deportivo Garcilaso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso 3-2 Sport Boys | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Sport Boys 0-1 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Deportivo Garcilaso 4-0 Sport Boys | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2024 | Deportivo Garcilaso 2-0 Sport Boys | Primera División |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Sport Boys 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2023 | Deportivo Garcilaso 3-0 Sport Boys | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Sport Boys on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sport Boys score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Garcilaso score 1.6 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Boys | 1.4 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1.6 | 0.5 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sport Boys sit 11th in Primera División (20 points from 17 matches) and Deportivo Garcilaso sit 7th (26 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Sport Boys | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Sport Boys | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 21 | 39 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 7 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 26 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 31 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
- The Footlab model makes Sport Boys the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Deportivo Garcilaso.
- Where and when is Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso played?
- Sport Boys vs Deportivo Garcilaso is played on September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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