Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 11Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar
The Footlab model makes Santa Fe the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Alianza Valledupar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe?
Santa Fe starts as the favourite with a 194-point Elo edge (1,853 vs 1,659).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Valledupar have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Santa Fe have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Deportivo Pereira(home) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bucaramanga(home) | 2-3 | Primera A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(home) | 1-2 | Primera A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(home) | 1-1 | Primera A |
| May 24, 2026 | Bucaramanga(home) | 2-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | America de Cali(home) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | River Plate(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chico(home) | 2-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Union Magdalena(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 2-2 | Primera A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Alianza Valledupar win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Santa Fe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Santa Fe 1-1 Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Santa Fe 1-0 Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| Sep 10, 2025 | Santa Fe 4-1 Alianza Valledupar | Copa Colombia |
| Aug 28, 2025 | Alianza Valledupar 1-1 Santa Fe | Copa Colombia |
| May 25, 2025 | Alianza Valledupar 6-1 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Santa Fe 2-0 Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Santa Fe vs Alianza Valledupar on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Valledupar score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Fe score 1.5 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Santa Fe | 1.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Valledupar sit 17th in Primera A (17 points from 19 matches) and Santa Fe sit 7th (29 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Santa Fe | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 35 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 29 |
| 10 | Santa Fe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 17 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Fe the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Alianza Valledupar.
- Where and when is Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe played?
- Alianza Valledupar vs Santa Fe is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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