Where and when is Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas played?

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Departamental Libertad, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 11Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Departamental Libertad, San Juan de Pasto

Deportivo Pasto

Once Caldas

The Footlab model makes Once Caldas the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Deportivo Pasto. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?

Once Caldas starts as the favourite with a 152-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,662).

Deportivo Pasto win33 %

Draw29 %

Once Caldas win38 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Pasto have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Once Caldas have 5, 8 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Deportivo Pasto
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Llaneros(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 9, 2026	Deportivo Cali(home)	0-2	Primera A
Aug 5, 2026	Millonarios(away)	0-2	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Águilas Doradas(home)	1-2	Primera A
Jul 29, 2026	Bogota FC(away)	3-0	Copa Colombia

Once Caldas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Junior(away)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 9, 2026	Jaguares(away)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 6, 2026	America de Cali(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 3, 2026	Santa Fe(away)	2-2	Primera A
Jul 30, 2026	Envigado(away)	3-0	Copa Colombia

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Deportivo Pasto win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Once Caldas win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 13, 2026	Once Caldas 4-2 Deportivo Pasto	Primera A
Nov 9, 2025	Once Caldas 1-0 Deportivo Pasto	Primera A
Oct 2, 2025	Once Caldas 4-0 Deportivo Pasto	Copa Colombia
Aug 29, 2025	Deportivo Pasto 1-2 Once Caldas	Copa Colombia
May 18, 2025	Deportivo Pasto 2-1 Once Caldas	Primera A
Oct 14, 2024	Once Caldas 2-1 Deportivo Pasto	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Once Caldas vs Deportivo Pasto on Mar 13, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Deportivo Pasto score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Once Caldas score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Pasto	1.0	1.6	3	6/15	7/15
Once Caldas	1.6	0.9	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Deportivo Pasto sit 3rd in Primera A (34 points from 19 matches) and Once Caldas sit 5th (33 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	10	4	5	29	25	34
5	Once Caldas	19	8	9	2	31	22	33
5	Once Caldas	21	8	10	3	33	25	34
7	Deportivo Pasto	21	10	4	7	29	28	34
10	Once Caldas	5	1	3	1	9	6	6
19	Deportivo Pasto	5	0	0	5	3	10	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas?: The Footlab model makes Once Caldas the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Deportivo Pasto.
Where and when is Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas played?: Deportivo Pasto vs Once Caldas is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Departamental Libertad, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.