Where and when is Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares played?

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 11Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín

Independiente Medellin

Jaguares

The Footlab model makes Independiente Medellin the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Jaguares. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?

Independiente Medellin starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (1,821 vs 1,634).

Independiente Medellin win60 %

Draw24 %

Jaguares win15 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente Medellin have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Jaguares have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Independiente Medellin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Cucuta(home)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Deportes Tolima(away)	3-2	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo Cali(home)	1-0	Primera A
Jul 29, 2026	Vasco DA Gama(away)	0-1	CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Jul 25, 2026	Deportivo Pasto(home)	3-2	Primera A

Jaguares
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Chico(home)	1-0	Primera A
Aug 9, 2026	Once Caldas(home)	1-1	Primera A
Aug 5, 2026	Internacional de Bogota(away)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 2, 2026	Atletico Nacional(home)	0-3	Primera A
Jul 25, 2026	Deportivo Cali(away)	0-2	Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Independiente Medellin win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Jaguares win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 15, 2026	Jaguares 1-2 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
Aug 7, 2025	Jaguares 0-1 Independiente Medellin	Copa Colombia
Jul 31, 2025	Independiente Medellin 1-1 Jaguares	Copa Colombia
Oct 29, 2024	Independiente Medellin 4-1 Jaguares	Primera A
Apr 7, 2024	Jaguares 2-2 Independiente Medellin	Primera A
Sep 2, 2023	Jaguares 1-1 Independiente Medellin	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Jaguares vs Independiente Medellin on Mar 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Independiente Medellin score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Jaguares score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Independiente Medellin	1.3	1.1	4	8/15	6/15
Jaguares	1.0	1.3	5	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Independiente Medellin sit 11th in Primera A (26 points from 19 matches) and Jaguares sit 16th (18 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Independiente Medellin	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	26
15	Jaguares	5	1	1	3	2	7	4
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20	33	18
16	Jaguares	19	5	3	11	20	33	18

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares?: The Footlab model makes Independiente Medellin the favourite at 60%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Jaguares.
Where and when is Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares played?: Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.