Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 11Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibagué
The Footlab model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for America de Cali. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Deportes Tolima (1,814) and America de Cali (1,849).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportes Tolima have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; America de Cali have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(away) | 1-3 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bucaramanga(home) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota(home) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Independiente Medellin(home) | 2-3 | Primera A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Atletico Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Once Caldas(away) | 1-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chico(home) | 7-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Deportes Tolima win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 America de Cali win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | America de Cali 1-1 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Aug 9, 2025 | America de Cali 0-1 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Jun 12, 2025 | America de Cali 1-3 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Deportes Tolima 1-1 America de Cali | Primera A |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Deportes Tolima 0-0 America de Cali | Primera A |
| Dec 1, 2024 | America de Cali 4-2 Deportes Tolima | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: America de Cali vs Deportes Tolima on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportes Tolima score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; America de Cali score 1.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| America de Cali | 1.3 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportes Tolima sit 6th in Primera A (31 points from 19 matches) and America de Cali sit 4th (33 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 21 | 37 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 33 |
| 6 | America de Cali | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 34 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali?
- The Footlab model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for America de Cali.
- Where and when is Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali played?
- Deportes Tolima vs America de Cali is played on September 20, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 20, 2026MillonariosvsChico
- Sep 20, 2026Deportivo PastovsOnce Caldas
- Sep 20, 2026Deportivo CalivsCucuta
- Sep 20, 2026Independiente MedellinvsJaguares
- Sep 20, 2026BucaramangavsInternacional de Bogota
- Sep 20, 2026Alianza ValleduparvsSanta Fe
- Sep 20, 2026Águilas DoradasvsDeportivo Pereira
- Sep 20, 2026Fortaleza FCvsJunior