AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB: prediction and stats
Serie CRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Etelvino Mendonça, Itabaiana, Sergipe
The Footlab model makes Botafogo PB the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for AO Itabaiana. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?
Botafogo PB starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,839 vs 1,728).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AO Itabaiana have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Botafogo PB have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Barra(away) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Caxias(home) | 0-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Confiança(away) | 1-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Brusque(home) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Amazonas(away) | 2-0 | Serie C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guarani Campinas(home) | 3-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Amazonas(away) | 0-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Santa Cruz(home) | 2-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Caxias(away) | 2-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Confiança(home) | 2-0 | Serie C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 AO Itabaiana win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Botafogo PB win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | AO Itabaiana 3-3 Botafogo PB | Copa do Nordeste |
| Jun 30, 2025 | AO Itabaiana 1-0 Botafogo PB | Serie C |
| Mar 24, 2024 | AO Itabaiana 0-1 Botafogo PB | Copa do Nordeste |
Last archived meeting: AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AO Itabaiana score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Botafogo PB score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AO Itabaiana | 0.8 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Botafogo PB | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AO Itabaiana sit 19th in Serie C (17 points from 17 matches) and Botafogo PB sit 1st (30 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo PB | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 30 |
| 19 | AO Itabaiana | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB?
- The Footlab model makes Botafogo PB the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for AO Itabaiana.
- Where and when is AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB played?
- AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Etelvino Mendonça, in the Serie C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.