Ferroviária vs Confiança: prediction and stats
Serie CRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Doutor Adhemar de Barros, Araraquara, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Ferroviária the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Confiança. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Confiança?
Ferroviária starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,825 vs 1,723).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ferroviária have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Confiança have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Paysandu(home) | 4-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Figueirense(away) | 2-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Maranhão(home) | 0-0 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Ituano(away) | 3-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Caxias(home) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Anápolis(home) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Maringá(home) | 1-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Paysandu(away) | 1-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AO Itabaiana(home) | 1-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Botafogo PB(away) | 0-2 | Serie C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Ferroviária win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Confiança win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2024 | Ferroviária 1-0 Confiança | Serie C |
Last archived meeting: Ferroviária vs Confiança on May 18, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Ferroviária score 1.2 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Confiança score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferroviária | 1.2 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Confiança | 0.7 | 1.3 | 2 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ferroviária sit 7th in Serie C (27 points from 17 matches) and Confiança sit 20th (13 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ferroviária | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 27 |
| 20 | Confiança | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 19 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ferroviária vs Confiança?
- The Footlab model makes Ferroviária the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Confiança.
- Where and when is Ferroviária vs Confiança played?
- Ferroviária vs Confiança is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Doutor Adhemar de Barros, in the Serie C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.