Floresta vs Ituano: prediction and stats
Serie CRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa, Horizonte, Ceará
The Footlab model makes Floresta the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Ituano. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Floresta vs Ituano?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Floresta (1,768) and Ituano (1,737).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Floresta have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ituano have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volta Redonda(away) | 2-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Anápolis(home) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ypiranga-RS(away) | 1-4 | Serie C |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Maringá(home) | 1-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Caxias(away) | 0-0 | Serie C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paysandu(home) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Volta Redonda(away) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barra(home) | 2-0 | Serie C |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Brusque(away) | 0-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Ferroviária(home) | 1-3 | Serie C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Floresta win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Ituano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2025 | Ituano 0-0 Floresta | Serie C |
How many goals should we expect?
Floresta score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ituano score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floresta | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Ituano | 0.8 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Floresta sit 8th in Serie C (27 points from 18 matches) and Ituano sit 15th (22 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Floresta | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 27 |
| 15 | Ituano | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Floresta vs Ituano?
- The Footlab model makes Floresta the favourite at 44%, against 31% for a draw and 25% for Ituano.
- Where and when is Floresta vs Ituano played?
- Floresta vs Ituano is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa, in the Serie C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.