Figueirense vs Maranhão: prediction and stats
Serie CRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Orlando Scarpelli, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Figueirense the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Maranhão. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Figueirense vs Maranhão?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Figueirense (1,777) and Maranhão (1,761).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Figueirense have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Maranhão have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Inter De Limeira(away) | 0-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Caxias(away) | 2-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferroviária(home) | 2-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Cruz(away) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Volta Redonda(home) | 0-0 | Serie C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Santa Cruz(away) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brusque(home) | 2-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ferroviária(away) | 0-0 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Ypiranga-RS(home) | 2-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Inter De Limeira(home) | 0-1 | Serie C |
How many goals should we expect?
Figueirense score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Maranhão score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figueirense | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Maranhão | 0.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Figueirense sit 14th in Serie C (24 points from 17 matches) and Maranhão sit 13th (24 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Maranhão | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 15 | 24 |
| 14 | Figueirense | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 21 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Figueirense vs Maranhão?
- The Footlab model makes Figueirense the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Maranhão.
- Where and when is Figueirense vs Maranhão played?
- Figueirense vs Maranhão is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Orlando Scarpelli, in the Serie C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.