Paysandu vs Maringá: prediction and stats
Serie CRegular Season - 19Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro, Belém, Pará
The Footlab model makes Paysandu the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Maringá. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paysandu vs Maringá?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Paysandu (1,827) and Maringá (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paysandu have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Maringá have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ituano(away) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Ferroviária(away) | 0-4 | Serie C |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Confiança(home) | 2-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Amazonas(away) | 1-2 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Guarani Campinas(home) | 3-2 | Serie C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Confiança(away) | 1-1 | Serie C |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Amazonas(home) | 0-3 | Serie C |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Floresta(away) | 1-1 | Serie C |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Anápolis(away) | 1-0 | Serie C |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Volta Redonda(home) | 4-0 | Serie C |
How many goals should we expect?
Paysandu score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Maringá score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paysandu | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Maringá | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paysandu sit 3rd in Serie C (29 points from 18 matches) and Maringá sit 12th (24 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Paysandu | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 29 |
| 12 | Maringá | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 29 | 29 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paysandu vs Maringá?
- The Footlab model makes Paysandu the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Maringá.
- Where and when is Paysandu vs Maringá played?
- Paysandu vs Maringá is played on August 29, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Leônidas Sodré de Castro, in the Serie C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.