Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Gdańsk
The Footlab model makes Lechia Gdansk the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Arka Gdynia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Lechia Gdansk (1,848) and Arka Gdynia (1,898).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lechia Gdansk have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Arka Gdynia have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Warta Poznań(home) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Miedz Legnica(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(home) | 3-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 0-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 4-0 | I Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Odra Opole(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lechia Gdansk win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Arka Gdynia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Arka Gdynia 2-2 Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa |
| May 19, 2024 | Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Arka Gdynia | I Liga |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Arka Gdynia 1-0 Lechia Gdansk | I Liga |
| May 31, 2020 | Lechia Gdansk 4-3 Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 20, 2019 | Arka Gdynia 2-2 Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk on Feb 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lechia Gdansk score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia Gdansk | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Arka Gdynia | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lechia Gdansk sit 16th in I Liga (4 points from 5 matches) and Arka Gdynia sit 5th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia?
- The Footlab model makes Lechia Gdansk the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Arka Gdynia.
- Where and when is Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia played?
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Miedz LegnicavsStal Mielec
- Oct 17, 2026NiecieczavsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Oct 17, 2026Warta PoznańvsUnia Skierniewice
- Oct 17, 2026ŁKS ŁódźvsPodbeskidzie
- Oct 17, 2026Pogoń SiedlcevsStal Rzeszów
- Oct 17, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsOdra Opole
- Oct 17, 2026Polonia BytomvsChrobry Głogów
- Oct 17, 2026Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivsPolonia Warszawa