Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań played?

Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań: prediction and stats

I LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Gdynia

Arka Gdynia

Warta Poznań

The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Warta Poznań. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań?

A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Arka Gdynia (1,900) and Warta Poznań (1,884).

Arka Gdynia win43 %

Draw26 %

Warta Poznań win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arka Gdynia have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Warta Poznań have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arka Gdynia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Miedz Legnica(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 17, 2026	Puszcza Niepołomice(home)	3-0	I Liga
Aug 10, 2026	Unia Skierniewice(away)	0-2	I Liga
Aug 1, 2026	Stal Rzeszów(home)	4-0	I Liga
Jul 24, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-0	I Liga

Warta Poznań
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Chrobry Głogów(away)	1-0	I Liga
Aug 15, 2026	Odra Opole(away)	1-3	I Liga
Aug 9, 2026	Nieciecza(away)	2-1	I Liga
Aug 5, 2026	Resovia Rzeszów(home)	0-1	Cup
Jul 31, 2026	Lechia Gdansk(away)	3-0	I Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Arka Gdynia win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Warta Poznań win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 8, 2025	Arka Gdynia 3-0 Warta Poznań	I Liga
Jan 25, 2025	Arka Gdynia 1-0 Warta Poznań	Friendlies Clubs
Sep 21, 2024	Warta Poznań 0-1 Arka Gdynia	I Liga
Jan 15, 2022	Warta Poznań 1-0 Arka Gdynia	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań on Apr 8, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Arka Gdynia score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Warta Poznań score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arka Gdynia	1.2	1.5	6	4/15	7/15
Warta Poznań	1.7	1.6	5	9/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arka Gdynia sit 5th in I Liga (9 points from 5 matches) and Warta Poznań sit 6th (9 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Arka Gdynia	5	3	0	2	8	4	9
6	Warta Poznań	5	3	0	2	10	8	9

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań?: The Footlab model makes Arka Gdynia the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Warta Poznań.
Where and when is Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań played?: Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznań is played on March 20, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the I Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.