Where and when is Arosa vs Ourense CF played?

Arosa vs Ourense CF is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio A Lomba, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arosa vs Ourense CF: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 24Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio A Lomba, Vilagarcía de Arousa

Arosa

Ourense CF

The Footlab model makes Arosa the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Ourense CF. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arosa vs Ourense CF?

A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Arosa (1,904) and Ourense CF (1,907).

Arosa win44 %

Draw28 %

Ourense CF win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arosa have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Ourense CF have 3, 6 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arosa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Pontevedra(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026	Celtiga(home)	3-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
May 2, 2026	Cambados(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Boiro(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 19, 2026	Barco(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Ourense CF
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Lugo(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Pontevedra(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Tenerife(home)	2-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	CF Talavera(away)	0-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 10, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(home)	2-4	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Arosa win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Ourense CF win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 24, 2021	Ourense CF 1-1 Arosa	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 1, 2020	Arosa 2-1 Ourense CF	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 9, 2019	Arosa 0-0 Ourense CF	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Ourense CF vs Arosa on Jan 24, 2021

How many goals should we expect?

Arosa score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ourense CF score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arosa	1.7	0.8	7	7/15	5/15
Ourense CF	1.1	1.3	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arosa vs Ourense CF?: The Footlab model makes Arosa the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Ourense CF.
Where and when is Arosa vs Ourense CF played?: Arosa vs Ourense CF is played on February 28, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio A Lomba, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.