Ourense CF vs Arosa: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense
The Footlab model makes Ourense CF the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Arosa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Arosa?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Ourense CF (1,906) and Arosa (1,903).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ourense CF have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Arosa have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | CF Talavera(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 2-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Pontevedra(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Celtiga(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 2, 2026 | Cambados(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Boiro(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Barco(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Ourense CF win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Arosa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2021 | Ourense CF 1-1 Arosa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | Arosa 2-1 Ourense CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 9, 2019 | Arosa 0-0 Ourense CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Ourense CF score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Arosa score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ourense CF | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Arosa | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ourense CF vs Arosa?
- The Footlab model makes Ourense CF the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Arosa.
- Where and when is Ourense CF vs Arosa played?
- Ourense CF vs Arosa is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.