Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Nottingham Forest. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,681 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 278-point Elo edge (2,494 vs 2,216).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester City
4-2-3-1- 9E. Haaland
- 10R. Cherki
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 17E. Fernández
- 5E. Anderson
- 11J. Doku
- 3Rúben Dias
- 6M. Guéhi
- 24J. Gvardiol
- 45A. Khusanov
- 1G. Donnarumma
Nottingham Forest
3-4-2-1- 19L. Delap
- 3N. Williams
- 14D. Ndoye
- 24J. McAtee
- 21X. Schlager
- 27D. Muñoz
- 10M. Gibbs-White
- 5Murillo
- 23Jair
- 2O. Diomande
- 26M. Sels
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 04:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Nottingham Forest have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 5-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Manchester City wins, 1 draw, 1 Nottingham Forest win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Manchester City 2-2 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Nottingham Forest 0-2 Manchester City | FA Cup |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Nottingham Forest 1-0 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Manchester City 3-0 Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Nottingham Forest 0-2 Manchester City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 2.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Nottingham Forest score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| Nottingham Forest | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 1st in Premier League (21 points from 8 matches) and Nottingham Forest sit 18th (6 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 21 |
| 18 | Nottingham Forest | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
A question about Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Nottingham Forest.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest played?
- Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.