Hull City vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The MKM Stadium, Hull
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Hull City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hull City vs Arsenal?
Arsenal is a heavy favourite: 2,377 Elo points against 1,939 — a 439-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hull City have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Arsenal have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Hull City win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Arsenal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2017 | Arsenal 2-0 Hull City | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2016 | Hull City 1-4 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Mar 8, 2016 | Hull City 0-4 Arsenal | FA Cup |
| Feb 20, 2016 | Arsenal 0-0 Hull City | FA Cup |
| May 4, 2015 | Hull City 1-3 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jan 4, 2015 | Arsenal 2-0 Hull City | FA Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Hull City score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 1.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Arsenal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hull City sit 5th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Arsenal sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hull City vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Hull City.
- Where and when is Hull City vs Arsenal played?
- Hull City vs Arsenal is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The MKM Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.