Chelsea vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Sunderland?
Chelsea starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (2,160 vs 2,058).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Sunderland have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lens(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-0 | Premier League - Summer Series |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-1 | Premier League - Summer Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chelsea win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Sunderland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland | Premier League |
| May 21, 2017 | Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2016 | Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 7, 2016 | Sunderland 3-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 19, 2015 | Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Sunderland vs Chelsea on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 6th in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Sunderland sit 13th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Sunderland played?
- Chelsea vs Sunderland is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.