Chelsea vs Sunderland: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Sunderland. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chelsea wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,659 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Sunderland?
Chelsea starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (2,287 vs 2,176).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chelsea vs Sunderland
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chelsea
3-4-2-1- 17M. Rogers
- 10C. Palmer
- 7Pedro Neto
- 14J. Henderson
- 25M. Caicedo
- 21J. Hato
- 23Geovany Tcherno Quenda
- 6L. Colwill
- 5M. Lacroix
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 1E. Martínez
Sunderland
4-2-3-1- 9B. Brobbey
- 34G. Xhaka
- 27N. Sadiki
- 28E. Le Fée
- 10N. Angulo
- 11C. Rigg
- 20N. Mukiele
- 32T. Hume
- 17Reinildo
- 13L. O'Nien
- 22R. Roefs
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 01:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Sunderland have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lech Poznan(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chelsea wins, 0 draws, 3 Sunderland wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Sunderland 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland | Premier League |
| May 21, 2017 | Chelsea 5-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2016 | Sunderland 0-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 7, 2016 | Sunderland 3-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Dec 19, 2015 | Chelsea 3-1 Sunderland | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Sunderland vs Chelsea on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 2.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sunderland score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Sunderland | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 5th in Premier League (13 points from 8 matches) and Sunderland sit 20th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 13 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Chelsea vs Sunderland?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Sunderland?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Sunderland.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Sunderland played?
- Chelsea vs Sunderland is played on January 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.