Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeones del '36, Sullana
The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Comerciantes Unidos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Alianza Atletico (1,694) and Comerciantes Unidos (1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza Atletico have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Comerciantes Unidos have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(home) | 1-1 | Copa De La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ADT(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 2-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alianza Atletico win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Comerciantes Unidos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Jun 12, 2025 | Alianza Atletico 3-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Alianza Atletico 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Apr 23, 2024 | Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 Alianza Atletico | Primera División |
| Dec 11, 2020 | Alianza Atletico 1-2 Comerciantes Unidos | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Atletico on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza Atletico score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Comerciantes Unidos score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Atletico | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alianza Atletico sit 8th in Primera División (21 points from 17 matches) and Comerciantes Unidos sit 9th (21 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 21 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 8 | Alianza Atletico | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 30 | 28 | 31 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | Comerciantes Unidos | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 10 | Alianza Atletico | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos?
- The Footlab model makes Alianza Atletico the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Comerciantes Unidos.
- Where and when is Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos played?
- Alianza Atletico vs Comerciantes Unidos is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeones del '36, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Sporting CristalvsAtletico Grau
- Sep 19, 2026Alianza LimavsADT
- Sep 19, 2026FBC MelgarvsSport Boys
- Sep 19, 2026Sport HuancayovsUTC Cajamarca
- Sep 19, 2026CiencianovsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 19, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsUniversitario
- Sep 19, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsUCV Moquegua
- Sep 19, 2026FC CajamarcavsCusco