Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
The Footlab model makes Sporting Cristal the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Atletico Grau. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau?
Sporting Cristal starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,734 vs 1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Cristal have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico Grau have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(away) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(home) | 4-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Universitario(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 30, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Juan Pablo II College(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sport Boys(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sport Huancayo(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sporting Cristal win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Atletico Grau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Atletico Grau 4-1 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Atletico Grau 1-2 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Sporting Cristal 2-1 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Atletico Grau 1-1 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Sporting Cristal 1-0 Atletico Grau | Primera División |
| Aug 17, 2023 | Atletico Grau 2-3 Sporting Cristal | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Grau vs Sporting Cristal on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Cristal score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Grau score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Cristal | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Atletico Grau | 1.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting Cristal sit 12th in Primera División (19 points from 17 matches) and Atletico Grau sit 16th (16 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sporting Cristal | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Atletico Grau | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Sporting Cristal | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 29 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 12 | Sporting Cristal | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 19 |
| 12 | Atletico Grau | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 23 | 26 |
| 14 | Atletico Grau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Atletico Grau | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Cristal the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Atletico Grau.
- Where and when is Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau played?
- Sporting Cristal vs Atletico Grau is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alberto Gallardo, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Alianza LimavsADT
- Sep 19, 2026FBC MelgarvsSport Boys
- Sep 19, 2026Sport HuancayovsUTC Cajamarca
- Sep 19, 2026Alianza AtleticovsComerciantes Unidos
- Sep 19, 2026CiencianovsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 19, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsUniversitario
- Sep 19, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsUCV Moquegua
- Sep 19, 2026FC CajamarcavsCusco