Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Avispa Fukuoka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Avispa Fukuoka (1,924) and Gamba Osaka (2,022).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avispa Fukuoka have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Avispa Fukuoka win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Gamba Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka 1-2 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka 2-2 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Gamba Osaka 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Gamba Osaka 2-2 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| May 3, 2024 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Gamba Osaka vs Avispa Fukuoka on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Avispa Fukuoka score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Gamba Osaka | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gamba Osaka | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Avispa Fukuoka.
- Where and when is Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka played?
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Best Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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