Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Nissan Stadium, Yokohama
The Footlab model makes Yokohama F. Marinos the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy?
Yokohama F. Marinos starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (1,976 vs 1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yokohama F. Marinos have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Tokyo Verdy have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 1-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kashima(home) | 3-4 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(away) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(home) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 2-4 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Yokohama F. Marinos win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tokyo Verdy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy 0-6 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos 3-2 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Tokyo Verdy 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Yokohama F. Marinos 0-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Jun 29, 2024 | Yokohama F. Marinos 1-2 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Tokyo Verdy 1-2 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Tokyo Verdy vs Yokohama F. Marinos on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tokyo Verdy score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Tokyo Verdy | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Yokohama F. Marinos sit 5th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and Tokyo Verdy sit 17th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy?
- The Footlab model makes Yokohama F. Marinos the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 19% for Tokyo Verdy.
- Where and when is Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy played?
- Yokohama F. Marinos vs Tokyo Verdy is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Nissan Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 21, 2026V-varen NagasakivsSanfrecce Hiroshima
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- Oct 21, 2026FC TokyovsKashiwa Reysol
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