Match

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, Kameoka

Kyoto SangaKashima

The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Kyoto Sanga. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima?

Kashima starts as the favourite with a 253-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 1,905).

Kyoto Sanga win20 %
Draw23 %
Kashima win57 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kyoto Sanga have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kyoto Sanga
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Mito Hollyhock(home)1-3J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Kawasaki Frontale(away)2-2J1 League
Aug 9, 2026V-varen Nagasaki(away)1-2J1 League
Jul 17, 2026Shonan Bellmare(home)1-4Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026Kashiwa Reysol(away)1-0J1 League
Kashima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(home)3-2J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Nagoya Grampus(home)2-1J1 League
Aug 7, 2026Yokohama F. Marinos(away)4-3J1 League
Jul 15, 2026Vegalta Sendai(home)5-0Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026Vissel Kobe(home)2-0J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Kyoto Sanga win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Kashima win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 25, 2025Kyoto Sanga 1-1 KashimaJ1 League
Apr 6, 2025Kashima 3-4 Kyoto SangaJ1 League
Nov 17, 2024Kyoto Sanga 0-0 KashimaJ1 League
Apr 13, 2024Kashima 1-0 Kyoto SangaJ1 League
Jul 1, 2023Kashima 0-0 Kyoto SangaJ1 League
Feb 18, 2023Kyoto Sanga 0-2 KashimaJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima on Oct 25, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Kyoto Sanga score 1.1 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Kyoto Sanga1.12.229/1510/15
Kashima1.91.086/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kyoto Sanga sit 18th in J1 League (1 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Kashima3300969
18Kyoto Sanga3012471

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima?
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Kyoto Sanga.
Where and when is Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima played?
Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Kyoto Sanga and Kashima

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