Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?

V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (2,090 vs 1,910).

V-varen Nagasaki win23 %

Draw24 %

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win54 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, V-varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Okinawa SV(home)	4-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Kawasaki Frontale(home)	1-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Urawa(away)	4-1	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	JEF United Chiba(home)	3-0	J1 League
Jul 28, 2026	Verspah Oita(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 V-varen Nagasaki win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 18, 2026	Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Feb 6, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki 1-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima	J1 League
Aug 11, 2018	Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Apr 28, 2018	V-varen Nagasaki 0-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima	J1 League

Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs V-varen Nagasaki on Apr 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2.3	1.1	5	9/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?: The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?: V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.