Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
The Footlab model makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Yokohama F. Marinos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Avispa Fukuoka (1,926) and Yokohama F. Marinos (1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avispa Fukuoka have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Yokohama F. Marinos have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 0-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 1-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kashima(home) | 3-4 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Avispa Fukuoka win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Yokohama F. Marinos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2025 | Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Jun 26, 2024 | Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Yokohama F. Marinos 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Avispa Fukuoka 0-4 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| May 28, 2023 | Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Avispa Fukuoka on Sep 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Avispa Fukuoka score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Yokohama F. Marinos sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
- The Footlab model makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Yokohama F. Marinos.
- Where and when is Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos played?
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos is played on November 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Best Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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