Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (2,114 vs 1,899).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shimizu S-pulse have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Shimizu S-pulse win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Machida Zelvia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 3-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| May 11, 2025 | Shimizu S-pulse 2-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Shimizu S-pulse 3-2 Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
| May 21, 2023 | Machida Zelvia 2-1 Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
| Oct 8, 2016 | Shimizu S-pulse 2-0 Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
| Jun 8, 2016 | Machida Zelvia 1-2 Shimizu S-pulse | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Shimizu S-pulse on Jul 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Shimizu S-pulse score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shimizu S-pulse sit 15th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Shimizu S-pulse.
- Where and when is Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia played?
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 21, 2026V-varen NagasakivsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Oct 21, 2026UrawavsJEF United Chiba
- Oct 21, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsCerezo Osaka
- Oct 21, 2026FC TokyovsKashiwa Reysol
- Oct 21, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsVissel Kobe
- Oct 21, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsTokyo Verdy
- Oct 21, 2026Kyoto SangavsKashima
- Oct 21, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsMito Hollyhock