Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Toyota
The Footlab model makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Nagoya Grampus (1,953) and Cerezo Osaka (2,019).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nagoya Grampus have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Cerezo Osaka have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tochigi City(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nagoya Grampus win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Cerezo Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka 6-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus 3-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Jun 30, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 2-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Cerezo Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nagoya Grampus sit 13th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Cerezo Osaka sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 38% for Cerezo Osaka.
- Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka played?
- Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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