Where and when is Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock played?

Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at City Light Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)City Light Stadium, Okayama

Fagiano Okayama

Mito Hollyhock

The Footlab model makes Fagiano Okayama the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Mito Hollyhock. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?

Fagiano Okayama starts as the favourite with a 106-point Elo edge (1,935 vs 1,829).

Fagiano Okayama win52 %

Draw26 %

Mito Hollyhock win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fagiano Okayama have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Mito Hollyhock have 2, 5 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fagiano Okayama
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Tokyo Verdy(home)	0-0	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(home)	1-0	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	1-2	J1 League
Jul 25, 2026	FC Schalke 04(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 22, 2026	Werder Bremen(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs

Mito Hollyhock
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(away)	3-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Gamba Osaka(home)	1-1	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	1-2	J1 League
Jun 6, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(home)	0-1	J1 League
May 30, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(away)	0-1	J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fagiano Okayama win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Mito Hollyhock win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Sep 22, 2024	Mito Hollyhock 0-0 Fagiano Okayama	J2 League
Mar 20, 2024	Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Mito Hollyhock	J2 League
Jul 1, 2023	Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Mito Hollyhock	J2 League
Mar 5, 2023	Mito Hollyhock 1-1 Fagiano Okayama	J2 League
Jun 25, 2022	Mito Hollyhock 1-1 Fagiano Okayama	J2 League
May 4, 2022	Fagiano Okayama 2-1 Mito Hollyhock	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Mito Hollyhock vs Fagiano Okayama on Sep 22, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Fagiano Okayama score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mito Hollyhock score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Fagiano Okayama	1.3	1.0	7	7/15	6/15
Mito Hollyhock	1.1	1.8	1	10/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fagiano Okayama sit 9th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Mito Hollyhock sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Mito Hollyhock	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
9	Fagiano Okayama	3	1	1	1	2	2	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?: The Footlab model makes Fagiano Okayama the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Mito Hollyhock.
Where and when is Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock played?: Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at City Light Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.