FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Kashiwa Reysol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,001) and Kashiwa Reysol (2,024).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Kashiwa Reysol have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 4-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Tokyo win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Kashiwa Reysol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol 1-3 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | FC Tokyo 0-2 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Apr 11, 2025 | FC Tokyo 1-1 Kashiwa Reysol | J1 League |
| Jul 30, 2024 | FC Tokyo 0-1 Kashiwa Reysol | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Kashiwa Reysol 3-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kashiwa Reysol vs FC Tokyo on Apr 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kashiwa Reysol score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 1.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Kashiwa Reysol sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Kashiwa Reysol.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol played?
- FC Tokyo vs Kashiwa Reysol is played on October 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 21, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsMachida Zelvia
- Oct 21, 2026V-varen NagasakivsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Oct 21, 2026UrawavsJEF United Chiba
- Oct 21, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsCerezo Osaka
- Oct 21, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsVissel Kobe
- Oct 21, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsTokyo Verdy
- Oct 21, 2026Kyoto SangavsKashima
- Oct 21, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsMito Hollyhock