Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
The Footlab model makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Avispa Fukuoka (1,926) and Shimizu S-pulse (1,901).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avispa Fukuoka have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Shimizu S-pulse have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 0-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Avispa Fukuoka win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Shimizu S-pulse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 0-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Avispa Fukuoka 3-2 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Jun 18, 2022 | Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Shimizu S-pulse vs Avispa Fukuoka on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Avispa Fukuoka score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Shimizu S-pulse score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Shimizu S-pulse | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Shimizu S-pulse sit 15th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse?
- The Footlab model makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Shimizu S-pulse.
- Where and when is Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse played?
- Avispa Fukuoka vs Shimizu S-pulse is played on December 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Best Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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