Match

Kashima vs Tokyo Verdy: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima

KashimaTokyo Verdy

The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kashima vs Tokyo Verdy?

Kashima starts as the favourite with a 288-point Elo edge (2,160 vs 1,872).

Kashima win64 %
Draw23 %
Tokyo Verdy win13 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashima have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Tokyo Verdy have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kashima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(home)3-2J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Nagoya Grampus(home)2-1J1 League
Aug 7, 2026Yokohama F. Marinos(away)4-3J1 League
Jul 15, 2026Vegalta Sendai(home)5-0Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026Vissel Kobe(home)2-0J1 League
Tokyo Verdy
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Fagiano Okayama(away)0-0J1 League
Aug 14, 2026Kashiwa Reysol(home)1-3J1 League
Aug 9, 2026Kawasaki Frontale(home)1-1J1 League
Jun 6, 2026Gamba Osaka(home)2-4J1 League
May 30, 2026Gamba Osaka(away)1-1J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kashima win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tokyo Verdy win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 29, 2026Tokyo Verdy 2-1 KashimaJ1 League
Mar 7, 2026Kashima 2-0 Tokyo VerdyJ1 League
Nov 30, 2025Tokyo Verdy 0-1 KashimaJ1 League
Feb 22, 2025Kashima 4-0 Tokyo VerdyJ1 League
Aug 25, 2024Tokyo Verdy 2-1 KashimaJ1 League
May 12, 2024Kashima 3-3 Tokyo VerdyJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima on Apr 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tokyo Verdy score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Kashima1.91.086/157/15
Tokyo Verdy0.91.558/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kashima sit 3rd in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Tokyo Verdy sit 17th (2 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Kashima3300969
17Tokyo Verdy3021242

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kashima vs Tokyo Verdy?
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Tokyo Verdy.
Where and when is Kashima vs Tokyo Verdy played?
Kashima vs Tokyo Verdy is played on December 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Kashima and Tokyo Verdy

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