Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Toyota
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (2,090 vs 1,953).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nagoya Grampus have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(home) | 1-3 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Okinawa SV(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Nagoya Grampus win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-2 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 2-4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Emperor Cup |
| Jun 28, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Nagoya Grampus | J-League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nagoya Grampus sit 13th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Nagoya Grampus.
- Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?
- Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on December 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Dec 19, 2026Vissel KobevsYokohama F. Marinos
- Dec 19, 2026KashimavsTokyo Verdy
- Dec 19, 2026Gamba OsakavsMachida Zelvia
- Dec 19, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsKashiwa Reysol
- Dec 19, 2026JEF United ChibavsCerezo Osaka
- Dec 19, 2026Kyoto SangavsFagiano Okayama
- Dec 19, 2026Mito HollyhockvsFC Tokyo