Where and when is Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki played?

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Best Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka

V-varen Nagasaki

The Footlab model makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki?

A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Avispa Fukuoka (1,926) and V-varen Nagasaki (1,910).

Avispa Fukuoka win48 %

Draw26 %

V-varen Nagasaki win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avispa Fukuoka have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; V-varen Nagasaki have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Avispa Fukuoka
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Verspah Oita(home)	0-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Kashima(away)	2-3	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(home)	3-0	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Vissel Kobe(home)	0-1	J1 League
Jul 19, 2026	Osaka(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Avispa Fukuoka win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 V-varen Nagasaki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 11, 2026	Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Mar 15, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka	J1 League
Jul 13, 2022	Avispa Fukuoka 2-0 V-varen Nagasaki	Emperor Cup
Sep 27, 2020	V-varen Nagasaki 1-3 Avispa Fukuoka	J2 League
Jul 4, 2020	Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Sep 7, 2019	V-varen Nagasaki 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki on Apr 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Avispa Fukuoka score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Avispa Fukuoka	1.4	1.3	2	10/15	8/15
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Avispa Fukuoka	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki?: The Footlab model makes Avispa Fukuoka the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki played?: Avispa Fukuoka vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Best Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.