Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Toyota
The Footlab model makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Avispa Fukuoka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Nagoya Grampus (1,953) and Avispa Fukuoka (1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nagoya Grampus have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Avispa Fukuoka have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(home) | 1-3 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 0-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nagoya Grampus win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Avispa Fukuoka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus 2-2 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-5 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| May 17, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Avispa Fukuoka score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nagoya Grampus sit 13th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka?
- The Footlab model makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Avispa Fukuoka.
- Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka played?
- Nagoya Grampus vs Avispa Fukuoka is played on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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