Where and when is Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons played?

Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)

Cardiff Draconians

Baglan Dragons

The Footlab model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons?

A very open match: only 75 Elo points separate Cardiff Draconians (1,547) and Baglan Dragons (1,472).

Cardiff Draconians win57 %

Draw24 %

Baglan Dragons win19 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cardiff Draconians have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Cardiff Draconians
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	llanelli AFC(home)	4-2	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Pontypridd Town(home)	1-4	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Caerphilly Athletic(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(away)	0-1	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Afan Lido(home)	4-1	FAW Championship

Baglan Dragons
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Newport City(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Llantwit Major(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	1-1	FAW Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Cardiff Draconians win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Baglan Dragons win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 14, 2026	Cardiff Draconians 3-1 Baglan Dragons	FAW Championship
Sep 13, 2025	Baglan Dragons 0-0 Cardiff Draconians	FAW Championship

Last archived meeting: Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons on Feb 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Cardiff Draconians score 1.7 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Cardiff Draconians	1.7	2.0	1	10/15	11/15
Baglan Dragons	0.5	2.1	4	4/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Cardiff Draconians sit 10th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
10	Cardiff Draconians	4	1	1	2	5	7	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons?: The Footlab model makes Cardiff Draconians the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Baglan Dragons.
Where and when is Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons played?: Cardiff Draconians vs Baglan Dragons is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.