Bahia vs Mirassol: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC)Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Mirassol. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bahia wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bahia vs Mirassol?
On Elo ratings, Bahia has 1,879 points and Mirassol 1,840.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bahia vs Mirassol
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bahia
4-3-3- 9A. Véliz
- 16Erick Pulga
- 99C. Olivera
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 5N. Acevedo
- 14Erick
- 33David Duarte
- 46Luciano Juba
- 44Marcos Victor
- 4Kanu
- 1Ronaldo
Mirassol
4-2-3-1- 30Bruno Santos
- 33Eduardo
- 27Denilson
- 10Chico
- 95Edson
- 77Alesson
- 3Willian Machado
- 6Reinaldo
- 32Igor Formiga
- 34João Victor
- 22Walter
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahia have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Mirassol have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Uberlandia(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Bahia win, 1 draw, 1 Mirassol win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Mirassol 1-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Mirassol 5-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Bahia 1-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Bahia score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mirassol score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Mirassol | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bahia sit 6th in Serie A (46 points from 28 matches) and Mirassol sit 15th (33 points from 29 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 43 | 35 | 46 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 43 | 33 |
A question about Bahia vs Mirassol?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Mirassol?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Mirassol.
- Where and when is Bahia vs Mirassol played?
- Bahia vs Mirassol is played on October 11, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC) at Arena Fonte Nova, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.