Palmeiras vs Corinthians: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Corinthians. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (2,122 vs 2,004).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Corinthians have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 2-3 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rosario Central(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 2-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Palmeiras win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Corinthians win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Corinthians 0-0 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Corinthians 0-1 Palmeiras | Paulista - A1 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Corinthians 1-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Aug 7, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-2 Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Corinthians 1-0 Palmeiras | Copa Do Brasil |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Palmeiras 2-0 Corinthians | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Corinthians vs Palmeiras on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Palmeiras score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Corinthians score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Corinthians | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Palmeiras sit 1st in Serie A (48 points from 23 matches) and Corinthians sit 9th (32 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 48 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
- The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Corinthians.
- Where and when is Palmeiras vs Corinthians played?
- Palmeiras vs Corinthians is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.