Match

Palmeiras vs Corinthians: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo

PalmeirasCorinthians

The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Corinthians. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (2,000 vs 1,813).

61%23%16%
Palmeiras winDrawCorinthians win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Palmeiras vs Corinthians

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Palmeiras

4-2-3-1
  1. 9Vitor Roque
  1. 42J. López
  2. 8Andreas Pereira
  3. 30Lucas Evangelista
  4. 11J. Arias
  5. 17Marlon Freitas
  1. 4A. Giay
  2. 22J. Piquerez
  3. 15G. Gómez
  4. 2A. Barboza
  1. 1Carlos Miguel

Corinthians

4-2-3-1
  1. 9Yuri Alberto
  1. 37Kaio César
  2. 8R. Garro
  3. 7Breno
  4. 10M. Depay
  5. 14Raniele
  1. 13Gustavo Henrique
  2. 21Matheus Bidu
  3. 2Matheuzinho
  4. 3Gabriel Paulista
  1. 1Hugo Souza

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Corinthians have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Palmeiras
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 20, 2026Gremio(away)0-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026LDU de Quito(away)2-3CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 12, 2026Sao Paulo(home)2-0Serie A
Sep 9, 2026LDU de Quito(home)1-0CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 6, 2026Botafogo(away)0-0Serie A
Corinthians
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026Internacional(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Fluminense(home)1-3Serie A
Sep 17, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(home)0-1CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 13, 2026Flamengo(away)1-2Serie A
Sep 10, 2026Estudiantes L.P.(away)1-1CONMEBOL Libertadores

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Palmeiras wins, 2 draws, 2 Corinthians wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 12, 2026Corinthians 0-0 PalmeirasSerie A
Feb 8, 2026Corinthians 0-1 PalmeirasPaulista - A1
Aug 31, 2025Corinthians 1-1 PalmeirasSerie A
Aug 7, 2025Palmeiras 0-2 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
Jul 31, 2025Corinthians 1-0 PalmeirasCopa Do Brasil
Apr 12, 2025Palmeiras 2-0 CorinthiansSerie A

Last archived meeting: Corinthians vs Palmeiras on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Palmeiras score 1.5 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Corinthians score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Palmeiras1.50.896/156/15
Corinthians0.81.348/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Palmeiras sit 2nd in Serie A (57 points from 28 matches) and Corinthians sit 16th (32 points from 29 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Palmeiras281693472157
16Corinthians298813303432

A question about Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 16% for Corinthians.
Where and when is Palmeiras vs Corinthians played?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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