Flamengo vs Fluminense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Flamengo the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Fluminense. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
Flamengo starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (2,121 vs 2,013).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flamengo have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Fluminense have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 5-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Palmeiras(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Flamengo win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Fluminense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Fluminense 1-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Fluminense 0-0 Flamengo | Carioca - 1 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Fluminense 2-1 Flamengo | Carioca - 1 |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Fluminense 2-1 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Flamengo 1-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Flamengo 0-0 Fluminense | Carioca - 1 |
Last archived meeting: Fluminense vs Flamengo on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Flamengo score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fluminense score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Fluminense | 1.2 | 1.0 | 3 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Flamengo sit 2nd in Serie A (45 points from 23 matches) and Fluminense sit 4th (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 45 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
- The Footlab model makes Flamengo the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Fluminense.
- Where and when is Flamengo vs Fluminense played?
- Flamengo vs Fluminense is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.