Match

Atletico-MG vs Santos: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais

Atletico-MGSantos

The Footlab AI model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Santos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico-MG wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico-MG vs Santos?

A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Atletico-MG (1,890) and Santos (1,888).

48%25%27%
Atletico-MG winDrawSantos win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atletico-MG vs Santos

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1
  1. 19Reinier
  1. 11Bernard
  2. 28T. Cuello
  3. 7Fred
  4. 8Maycon
  5. 39Mamady Cisse
  1. 2Natanael
  2. 14Vitor Hugo
  3. 6Renan Lodi
  4. 13Lyanco
  1. 1Gabriel Delfim

Santos

4-2-3-1
  1. 9Gabriel Barbosa
  1. 26C. Oliva
  2. 8Gabriel Bontempo
  3. 48Gustavo Henrique Pereira
  4. 22Á. Barreal
  5. 6Arthur
  1. 23Rodinei
  2. 31G. Escobar
  3. 15Willian Arão
  4. 4Lucas Veríssimo
  1. 1Diógenes

Known absences

  • NeymarOut · Calf injury

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Santos have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico-MG
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026RB Bragantino(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Chapecoense-sc(home)1-1Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Santos(home)4-2CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 12, 2026Fluminense(home)3-1Serie A
Sep 9, 2026Santos(away)0-2CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Santos
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 8, 2026Flamengo(home)2-2Serie A
Oct 2, 2026Sao Paulo(away)2-1Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Remo(away)2-1Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Atletico-MG(away)2-4CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 13, 2026Cruzeiro(home)2-1Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico-MG wins, 1 draw, 3 Santos wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 16, 2026Atletico-MG 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 9, 2026Santos 2-0 Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana
Apr 11, 2026Santos 1-0 Atletico-MGSerie A
Sep 14, 2025Atletico-MG 1-1 SantosSerie A
Apr 17, 2025Santos 2-0 Atletico-MGSerie A
Aug 27, 2023Atletico-MG 2-0 SantosSerie A

Last archived meeting: Atletico-MG vs Santos on Sep 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico-MG score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Santos score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG1.51.058/157/15
Santos1.51.258/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atletico-MG sit 7th in Serie A (43 points from 28 matches) and Santos sit 8th (41 points from 28 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Atletico-MG281279373243
8Santos281189434141

A question about Atletico-MG vs Santos?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Santos?
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Santos.
Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Santos played?
Atletico-MG vs Santos is played on October 11, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Atletico-MG and Santos

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