Atletico-MG vs Santos: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
The Footlab model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Santos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Santos?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Atletico-MG (1,985) and Santos (1,955).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico-MG have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Santos have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Internacional(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Macara(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Macara(home) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico-MG win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Santos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Santos 1-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Atletico-MG 1-1 Santos | Serie A |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Santos 2-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Atletico-MG 2-0 Santos | Serie A |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Santos 0-0 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
| Oct 6, 2022 | Santos 1-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Santos vs Atletico-MG on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico-MG score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Santos score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Santos | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico-MG sit 8th in Serie A (33 points from 23 matches) and Santos sit 14th (25 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 33 |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 35 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico-MG vs Santos?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico-MG the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Santos.
- Where and when is Atletico-MG vs Santos played?
- Atletico-MG vs Santos is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Arena MRV, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.