Gremio vs Internacional: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes Gremio the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Internacional. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gremio vs Internacional?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Gremio (1,928) and Internacional (1,949).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gremio have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Internacional have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 1-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atletico-MG(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Remo(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 1-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gremio win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Internacional win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Internacional 0-0 Gremio | Serie A |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Internacional 1-1 Gremio | Gaúcho - 1 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Gremio 3-0 Internacional | Gaúcho - 1 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Internacional 4-2 Gremio | Gaúcho - 1 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Internacional 2-3 Gremio | Serie A |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Gremio 1-1 Internacional | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Internacional vs Gremio on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gremio score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Internacional score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Internacional | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gremio sit 15th in Serie A (25 points from 23 matches) and Internacional sit 16th (25 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gremio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Internacional?
- The Footlab model makes Gremio the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Internacional.
- Where and when is Gremio vs Internacional played?
- Gremio vs Internacional is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Arena do Grêmio, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.