Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 12, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC)Arena Condá, Chapecó, Santa Catarina
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Chapecoense-sc. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Paranaense wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,881 vs 1,720).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chapecoense-sc
4-2-3-1- 9Túlio
- 88Yago Felipe
- 31Garcez
- 7Marcinho
- 27Camilo
- 10Giovanni Augusto
- 21Kauan Faria Gomes
- 3Doma
- 91Bruno Pacheco
- 20Bruno Tubarão
- 98Anderson
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1- 9K. Viveros
- 16Jádson
- 7S. Mendoza
- 14Luiz Gustavo
- 21Leozinho
- 12Gilberto
- 37L. Esquivel
- 4Arthur Dias
- 33J. Aguirre
- 25Dantas
- 1Mycael
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chapecoense-sc have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Atletico Paranaense have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Serie A |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Atletico Nacional(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chapecoense-sc wins, 4 draws, 2 Atletico Paranaense wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Chapecoense-sc 2-3 Atletico Paranaense | Serie B |
| May 9, 2025 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| Oct 13, 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Jun 27, 2021 | Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Sep 29, 2019 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chapecoense-sc score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Paranaense score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in Serie A (18 points from 28 matches) and Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd (49 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43 | 32 | 49 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 28 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 29 | 57 | 18 |
A question about Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Chapecoense-sc.
- Where and when is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense played?
- Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense is played on October 12, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC) at Arena Condá, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.