Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Arena Condá, Chapecó, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Chapecoense-sc. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,986 vs 1,839).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chapecoense-sc have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Atletico Paranaense have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coritiba(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 0-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santos(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Chapecoense-sc win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Atletico Paranaense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Chapecoense-sc 2-3 Atletico Paranaense | Serie B |
| May 9, 2025 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie B |
| Oct 13, 2021 | Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| Jun 27, 2021 | Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
| Sep 29, 2019 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Chapecoense-sc | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chapecoense-sc score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Paranaense score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense-sc | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico Paranaense | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chapecoense-sc sit 20th in Serie A (14 points from 23 matches) and Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd (41 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 41 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Paranaense the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Chapecoense-sc.
- Where and when is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense played?
- Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Condá, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.