Coritiba vs Botafogo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Curitiba, Paraná
The Footlab model makes Coritiba the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Botafogo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Coritiba vs Botafogo?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Coritiba (1,911) and Botafogo (1,952).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Coritiba have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Botafogo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 1-6 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Coritiba win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Botafogo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Botafogo 2-2 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Nov 30, 2023 | Coritiba 1-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Jul 30, 2023 | Botafogo 4-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Botafogo 2-0 Coritiba | Serie A |
| May 29, 2022 | Coritiba 1-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Aug 28, 2021 | Coritiba 0-1 Botafogo | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Coritiba score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Botafogo score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Botafogo | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Coritiba sit 10th in Serie A (31 points from 23 matches) and Botafogo sit 11th (30 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Coritiba | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 31 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Botafogo?
- The Footlab model makes Coritiba the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Botafogo.
- Where and when is Coritiba vs Botafogo played?
- Coritiba vs Botafogo is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.