Match

Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), São Paulo, São Paulo

Sao PauloVitoria

The Footlab AI model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sao Paulo wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

On Elo ratings, Sao Paulo has 1,815 points and Vitoria 1,812.

50%25%25%
Sao Paulo winDrawVitoria win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Sao Paulo

3-4-3
  1. 37Artur
  2. 16D. Bobadilla
  3. 9J. Calleri
  1. 8Marcos Antônio
  2. 32Pedro Lima
  3. 29Pablo Maia
  4. 18Wendell
  1. 5R. Arboleda
  2. 2R. Tolói
  3. 35Sabino
  1. 31Carlos Coronel

Vitoria

4-2-3-1
  1. 91Rene
  1. 12D. Tarzia
  2. 33Erick
  3. 95Caíque
  4. 10Matheuzinho
  5. 6E. Martínez
  1. 36Luan Cândido
  2. 83Jamerson
  3. 98Mateusinho
  4. 25Cacá
  1. 1Lucas Arcanjo

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:27 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sao Paulo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Vitoria have 4, 2 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sao Paulo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 8, 2026Cruzeiro(away)0-2Serie A
Oct 2, 2026Santos(home)1-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Internacional(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 16, 2026Boca Juniors(home)1-1CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Sep 12, 2026Palmeiras(away)0-2Serie A
Vitoria
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 7, 2026Chapecoense-sc(home)4-0Serie A
Sep 20, 2026Cruzeiro(home)1-3Serie A
Sep 13, 2026Mirassol(away)2-2Serie A
Sep 7, 2026Gremio(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 3, 2026Vasco DA Gama(home)0-2Copa Do Brasil

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sao Paulo wins, 0 draws, 2 Vitoria wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 11, 2026Vitoria 2-0 Sao PauloSerie A
Dec 7, 2025Vitoria 1-0 Sao PauloSerie A
Aug 9, 2025Sao Paulo 2-0 VitoriaSerie A
Aug 25, 2024Sao Paulo 2-1 VitoriaSerie A
May 5, 2024Vitoria 1-3 Sao PauloSerie A
Oct 26, 2018Vitoria 0-1 Sao PauloSerie A

Last archived meeting: Vitoria vs Sao Paulo on Apr 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sao Paulo score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Sao Paulo1.01.229/155/15
Vitoria0.91.553/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sao Paulo sit 11th in Serie A (36 points from 29 matches) and Vitoria sit 12th (36 points from 29 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
11Sao Paulo2910613333436
12Vitoria2910613324236

A question about Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
The Footlab AI model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Vitoria.
Where and when is Sao Paulo vs Vitoria played?
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria is played on October 11, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Sao Paulo and Vitoria

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