Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 30Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Sao Paulo (1,941) and Vitoria (1,968).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Vitoria have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bahia(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 4-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 0-2 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sao Paulo win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Vitoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Vitoria 2-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Vitoria 1-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Sao Paulo 2-0 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Sao Paulo 2-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| May 5, 2024 | Vitoria 1-3 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2018 | Vitoria 0-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Sao Paulo score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
| Vitoria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sao Paulo sit 13th in Serie A (27 points from 22 matches) and Vitoria sit 12th (29 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Vitoria | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 29 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sao Paulo vs Vitoria?
- The Footlab model makes Sao Paulo the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Vitoria.
- Where and when is Sao Paulo vs Vitoria played?
- Sao Paulo vs Vitoria is played on October 11, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.