Basconia vs Llanera: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Artunduaga, Basauri
The Footlab model makes Basconia the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Llanera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Basconia vs Llanera?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Basconia (1,963) and Llanera (2,001).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Basconia have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Llanera have 12, 3 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Racing Santander II(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Ejea(home) | 5-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gernika(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Sestao River(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avilés Stadium(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Avilés Stadium(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Tuilla(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Basconia score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Llanera score 1.9 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basconia | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Llanera | 1.9 | 0.4 | 11 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Basconia vs Llanera?
- The Footlab model makes Basconia the favourite at 38%, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Llanera.
- Where and when is Basconia vs Llanera played?
- Basconia vs Llanera is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Artunduaga, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.