Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Marino de Luanco: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Malecón, Torrelavega
The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Marino de Luanco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Marino de Luanco?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate Gimnástica Torrelavega (1,974) and Marino de Luanco (1,876).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gimnástica Torrelavega have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Marino de Luanco have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Basconia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Langreo(home) | 6-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ponferradina(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gimnástica Torrelavega win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Marino de Luanco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | Marino de Luanco 2-0 Gimnástica Torrelavega | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 0-1 Marino de Luanco | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 0-0 Marino de Luanco | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Marino de Luanco 0-1 Gimnástica Torrelavega | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Marino de Luanco 0-2 Gimnástica Torrelavega | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 0-1 Marino de Luanco | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Marino de Luanco vs Gimnástica Torrelavega on Jan 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Gimnástica Torrelavega score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Marino de Luanco score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnástica Torrelavega | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Marino de Luanco | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Marino de Luanco | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 31 | 26 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Marino de Luanco?
- The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 54%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Marino de Luanco.
- Where and when is Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Marino de Luanco played?
- Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Marino de Luanco is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Malecón, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.