Match

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg: prediction and stats

BundesligaMatchday 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia DortmundSC Freiburg

The Footlab AI model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for SC Freiburg. The most likely score is 1-1. If Borussia Dortmund wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,999 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (2,373 vs 2,272).

50%24%26%
Borussia Dortmund winDrawSC Freiburg win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Borussia Dortmund

3-4-2-1
  1. 9S. Guirassy
  1. 8F. Nmecha
  2. 24D. Svensson
  3. 25J. Veerman
  4. 7J. Bellingham
  5. 17C. Chukwuemeka
  6. 21Fábio Silva
  1. 3W. Anton
  2. 4N. Schlotterbeck
  3. 22Kouakou Joane Gadou
  1. 1G. Kobel

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1
  1. 31I. Matanović
  1. 8M. Eggestein
  2. 16Y. Engelhardt
  3. 14Y. Suzuki
  4. 19J. Beste
  5. 7D. Scherhant
  1. 28M. Ginter
  2. 33J. Makengo
  3. 3P. Lienhart
  4. 29P. Treu
  1. 1M. Backhaus

Computed on November 14, 2026 at 07:43 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; SC Freiburg have 11, 1 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Borussia Dortmund
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026SV Elversberg(home)2-1Bundesliga
Nov 4, 2026Real Betis(home)2-1UEFA Champions League
Oct 31, 2026Bayern München(away)2-2Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026Werder Bremen(home)3-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-0Bundesliga
SC Freiburg
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 2026Union Berlin(home)2-0Bundesliga
Nov 5, 2026Trabzonspor(away)1-0UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 31, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-1Bundesliga
Oct 28, 2026VfL Wolfsburg(home)3-2DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 2026Bayern München(home)1-3Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Borussia Dortmund wins, 1 draw, 0 SC Freiburg wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 26, 2026Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Dec 14, 2025SC Freiburg 1-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Apr 5, 2025SC Freiburg 1-4 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
Nov 23, 2024Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Feb 9, 2024Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Sep 16, 2023SC Freiburg 2-4 Borussia DortmundBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg on Apr 26, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Borussia Dortmund score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; SC Freiburg score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund2.10.968/1510/15
SC Freiburg2.31.3410/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in Bundesliga (21 points from 9 matches) and SC Freiburg sit 3rd (19 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Borussia Dortmund963016721
3SC Freiburg9612201019

A question about Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg?
The Footlab AI model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for SC Freiburg.
Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg played?
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Borussia Dortmund and SC Freiburg