Match

VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MHPArena, Stuttgart

VfB StuttgartFSV Mainz 05

The Footlab AI model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 1-1. If VfB Stuttgart wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,516 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?

VfB Stuttgart starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (2,278 vs 2,167).

42%23%35%
VfB Stuttgart winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

VfB Stuttgart

3-4-2-1
  1. 9E. Demirović
  1. 6A. Stiller
  2. 26D. Undav
  3. 10C. Führich
  4. 4J. Vagnoman
  5. 21G. Prömel
  6. 18J. Leweling
  1. 24J. Chabot
  2. 3R. Hendriks
  3. 7M. Mittelstädt
  1. 1F. Bredlow

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 23S. Becker
  2. 9P. Tietz
  1. 10N. Amiri
  2. 19A. Caci
  3. 6K. Sano
  4. 2P. Mwene
  5. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  1. 3F. Gruber
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 4S. Posch
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 08:23 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VfB Stuttgart have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

VfB Stuttgart
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 14, 2026Slovan Bratislava(away)3-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026SC Paderborn 07(away)2-0Bundesliga
Oct 1, 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)5-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 25, 20261. FC Heidenheim(home)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Dortmund(home)0-1Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)4-3Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3Bundesliga
Sep 6, 2026Hamburger SV(away)5-0Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 VfB Stuttgart wins, 2 draws, 1 FSV Mainz 05 win.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 7, 2026FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Oct 29, 2025FSV Mainz 05 0-2 VfB StuttgartDFB Pokal
Oct 26, 2025VfB Stuttgart 2-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Jan 25, 2025FSV Mainz 05 2-0 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
Aug 31, 2024VfB Stuttgart 3-3 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Feb 11, 2024VfB Stuttgart 3-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart on Mar 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

VfB Stuttgart score 2.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.6 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart2.91.067/1512/15
FSV Mainz 053.61.096/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

VfB Stuttgart sit 11th in Bundesliga (6 points from 5 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 8th (7 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
8FSV Mainz 05521213107
11VfB Stuttgart5203896

A question about VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?
The Footlab AI model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05

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