Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 played?

VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MHPArena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

FSV Mainz 05

The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?

A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate VfB Stuttgart (2,252) and FSV Mainz 05 (2,158).

VfB Stuttgart win48 %

Draw22 %

FSV Mainz 05 win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

VfB Stuttgart
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Hansa Rostock(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Fulham(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Everton(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Paris FC(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	8-1	Friendlies Clubs

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 VfB Stuttgart win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 FSV Mainz 05 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 7, 2026	FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Oct 29, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 0-2 VfB Stuttgart	DFB Pokal
Oct 26, 2025	VfB Stuttgart 2-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Jan 25, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 2-0 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Aug 31, 2024	VfB Stuttgart 3-3 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Feb 11, 2024	VfB Stuttgart 3-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart on Mar 7, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

VfB Stuttgart score 3.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart	3.1	1.3	4	9/15	13/15
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

VfB Stuttgart sit 4th in Bundesliga (62 points from 34 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th (40 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71	49	62
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05?: The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 48%, against 22% for a draw and 30% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 played?: VfB Stuttgart vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.