Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 played?

Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on February 20, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

FSV Mainz 05

The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 50%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (2,286 vs 2,158).

Bayer Leverkusen win50 %

Draw22 %

FSV Mainz 05 win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Krieschow(away)	9-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayer Leverkusen win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 FSV Mainz 05 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 28, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
May 17, 2025	FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Jan 14, 2025	Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Feb 23, 2024	Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Sep 30, 2023	FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 on Feb 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15
FSV Mainz 05	3.0	1.3	6	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th in Bundesliga (59 points from 34 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th (40 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?: The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 50%, against 22% for a draw and 28% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 played?: Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on February 20, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.