Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer LeverkusenFSV Mainz 05

The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,449 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (2,280 vs 2,115).

54%22%24%
Bayer Leverkusen winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
  1. 14P. Schick
  1. 24Aleix García
  2. 6E. Fernández
  3. 30I. Maza
  4. 9Afonso Moreira
  5. 17Lucas Vázquez
  1. 2F. Medina
  2. 12E. Tapsoba
  3. 3Miguel Gutiérrez
  4. 4J. Quansah
  1. 1M. Flekken

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 2P. Mwene
  2. 6K. Sano
  3. 10N. Amiri
  4. 19A. Caci
  5. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 21D. da Costa
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Computed on November 4, 2026 at 09:34 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)2-4Bundesliga
Oct 28, 20261. FC Nürnberg(home)5-2DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)0-3Bundesliga
Oct 22, 2026OFI(away)2-0UEFA Europa League
Oct 18, 2026SC Freiburg(home)2-1Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 30, 2026SV Elversberg(away)1-4Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026VfL Bochum(away)0-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-3Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayer Leverkusen wins, 2 draws, 0 FSV Mainz 05 wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Feb 28, 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
May 17, 2025FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Jan 14, 2025Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Feb 23, 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen on Oct 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 2.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen2.51.468/1512/15
FSV Mainz 052.61.577/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th in Bundesliga (13 points from 8 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 9th (10 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
6Bayer Leverkusen8413181613
9FSV Mainz 058314171710

A question about Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on February 20, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Bayer Leverkusen and FSV Mainz 05

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