Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig played?

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

RB Leipzig

The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for RB Leipzig. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?

A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Bayer Leverkusen (2,276) and RB Leipzig (2,198).

Bayer Leverkusen win57 %

Draw21 %

RB Leipzig win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; RB Leipzig have 9, 0 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Genk(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs

RB Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Leeds(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Verl(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Altglienicke(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayer Leverkusen win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 RB Leipzig win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 2, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Dec 20, 2025	RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Jan 25, 2025	RB Leipzig 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Aug 31, 2024	Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Jan 20, 2024	RB Leipzig 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Aug 19, 2023	Bayer Leverkusen 3-2 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig on May 2, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; RB Leipzig score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen	2.5	1.2	4	10/15	12/15
RB Leipzig	1.8	1.5	4	9/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayer Leverkusen sit 6th in Bundesliga (59 points from 34 matches) and RB Leipzig sit 3rd (65 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	65
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig?: The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for RB Leipzig.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig played?: Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.